Algeria: a time for cautious celebrations

Promising signs

At last, there are positive signs in Algeria. With a delay of eight years, Spring has finally sprung. I am referring to the Arab Spring in Algeria. But as the good old English saying goes: Ne'er cast a clout till May be out! True, the fact that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced that he will not run for the contested fifth term is a good sign. As is the fact that the Prime Minister has been replaced. Equally reassuring is the fact that the people will be offered a new constitution, which they will be able to vote for. It was thanks to constitutional changes implemented by Bouteflika that allowed him to cling on to power for so long, in the first place. The problem is, however, that there are still too many grey areas and we do not know who is calling the shots. Several questions need to be answered before we can start celebrating freedom of political choice in Algeria.

Immediate concerns

First, the elections have been postponed. How long for? Bouteflika's last concession, some days ago now, was that he would only serve a year, if elected. This was widely seen as a ploy to buy time in order to cover up corruption. Or, equally concerning, a way of grooming a successor of the same mould. An election without Bouteflika could achieve the same results if held months from now. Second, the promise of a new constitution is all well and good, as long as the proposal is meaningful. Much will depend on who will be involved in drafting the new constitution. The electorate will not be duped into voting on insignificant changes dress up as progressive reform. Finally, will there be interference in the political process by Bouteflika's cronies or the army? If so, there will be little hope of progress.

These questions must be answered in next few days and elaborated in the coming weeks. The reaction of opposition parties will be an indication of the sincerity of these moves. Even more revealing, however, will be the transparency of the current regime in facilitating the process of change.

                                            The 1966 Masterpiece by Pontecorvo on Algeria's Fight for Independence

Consolidation the gains

Apart form the dangers of tokenism, there are even more serious hazards ahead. These can be summed up in one word: Egypt. Almost nine years ago exactly, Hosni Mubarak's resignation led to free and fair elections. Morsi was elected President in June 2012. The event only ushered in a period of further unrest resulting in a military coup a year later. Now, the situation regarding Human rights in Egypt are dismal by any standards. Routine killing and torture of dissidents, detention of journalists, persecution of LGBT+ people, violence against women... The list is long and gruesome and spares no one the regime considers a threat. The brutal murder of the Italian PhD student Giulio Regeni, is a case in point.


So far the protests and developments in Algeria have been peaceful. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Recently a similar revolution took place in Armenia. If Algeria plays its cards right it can pave the way to a future of peace and prosperity for its people. What's more, it can offer a message of hope to a world that is sorely in need of positive examples.