Venezuela on the Brink

Guaidó and Maduro seem to be in extra time

It has been several weeks now since Juan Guaidó declared himself Acting President of Venezuela. Much has happened since then, but the balance of power seems to have tottered one way, then the other, without leaning decisively either way. As I pointed out in an earlier post, it is up to the people to decide which way it is going to go. 

Trumps starving the people with sanctions on the one hand and offering aid on the other is not helping the situation. Nor is Guaidó's recognition by the USA and some of its (former?) allies. Foreign interference will, no doubt, rouse additional Venezuelan citizens against President Maduro, but it is also likely to entrench others. It may even inspire indignation amongst people who had joined the insurgency or were considering doing so. The odds seem evenly stacked. Guaidó keeps throwing the gauntlet, while Maduro refuses to take the bait. The status quo favours Maduro since he is already in power. While Guaidó knows that he can only push so far. Still, as is the case in such situations, the slightest spark can trigger a conflagration.

Trump is still playing games

The people are are in the dark (literally!) as to what could happen next. Maduro blamed US sabotage for the power cuts that have plunged much of the nation into darkness. This may be true, but what is certain is that Trump is giving mixed messages. He declared that the US would not use military force to ensure that the aid gets through, but has nonetheless shut the US Embassy in Caracas as a signal that it is prepared for anything. 

Mediation must be the absolute priority 

The situation is indeed precarious. What is needed is ways to ease the tension, not to aggravate it. The problem is finding the right mediator to help broker constructive dialogue. With many parties from the international stage, including the UN, taking sides, it is difficult to gauge who could be trusted by both contenders. Because of its ambivalence, a possible candidate could be the Catholic Church. Even though bishops in Venezuela had called Maduro's inauguration illegitimate, Pope Francis still sent a representative to his inauguration. The Pope could now delegate a representative to try to bring Guaidó and Maduro to the negotiating table.