Scottish Future... Promising, Come What May

The 2014 Scottish Referendum...

When the Scottish people were asked to vote on independence form the United Kingdom in 2014, they were well informed. The Government published a 670 page document detailing all the implications: Scotland's Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland. This document begins with clear bullet points outlining the general benefits and additional ones relating to the governing party's plans to maximise the opportunities. 

When voters in the UK were presented with the referendum on whether to leave the European Union (EU) or not, they were given a pack... of lies. If the Scots had opted to leave, the situation, of course, would not have been comparable to the chaotic Brexit scenario. Apart form the planning and the availability of information, there was another important ingredient: the EU. Scotland's intention was to remain in the EU, or reapply if that were not possible. So, there were no headaches of "hard" or "soft" borders between the remaining parts of the UK and an independent Scotland, or other nightmare scenarios. 

The situation in 2014

The EU, however, was cagey about Scotland's position, if it were to choose to leave the UK. The last thing that countries with breakaway problems of their own, like Spain, wanted, was to encourage separatism. This uncertainty may have tipped the balance in favour of Scotland remaining within the UK. Then, the remain side won by 55%. 

The situation now

It is surprising how much can change in five years. Scotland is now faced with leaving the EU, even though it voted by a majority of 62% to remain, or staying in the UK. Ian Blackford MP, the Scottish National Party (SNP) representative has stressed in no uncertain terms that his party's priority lies with Europe. The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has also made this very clear. Whilst the result of another Scottish referendum is by no means certain, the fact that another is coming is evident. The Scottish government, unlike the one in Westminster, is not ignorant to the fact that situations change. The fact that Prime Minister Theresa May refuses to take the Brexit vote back to the people beggars belief, although she may still be forces to do that. 

What will an independent Scotland look like?

It would be difficult to predict, at this point in time, what an independent Scotland could look like. On the one hand, if a hard or "no deal" Brexit prevails, Scottish independence would be more likely. But it would also be more complicated. On the other, a soft Brexit, or the revoking of Article 50 (i.e. no Brexit) would make separation a lot easier, but less likely. In the second scenario, the situation would be similar to that described in Scotland's Future. In the first, it would be better still. Scotland would be in a position to scoop up much of the world's, and particularly the EU's, interest in Britain. All sorts of projects (business, educational, cultural...) could flourish flawlessly with the EU. 

Needless to say, this will come at a substantial cost, unless some sort of mutually beneficial trading agreement is not agreed between Scotland and the UK (minus Scotland). At the moment, Scotland exports £48.9 bn to the rest of the UK and only 14.9 to the EU. The free movement of people could also become a serious problem, without appropriate treaties. Whatever the likely consequences, one thing ia almost certain: the Scottish people will be given an informed choice.