Turkey on the edge

Erdoğan's power-grab 

So, first we have the imposition of martial law after the attempted coup on the 15th July 2016. It was supposed to last three months, but lasted until 19th July, 2018, that is, after the presidential and parliamentary elections. Then we had the April 16, 2017 referendum (also while Turkey was under martial law). This was anything but free and fair and it resulted in sweeping new powers for the president. And now we have the the re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election, because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not like the results.

I say "first", but the writing had been on the wall a long time before that. In fact, it was Erdoğan's bigotry and intransigence that probably led to the coup attempt in the first place.

A slap in the face for Erdoğan

Losing Istanbul to the opposition was a big blow to the president for a number of reasons. First, it is Turkey's largest and most populous city, with over 15,000,000 people. Second, Istanbul is the financial, cultural and historical hub of the country. As Constantinople, it had been the capital of the later Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire and the Ottoman Empire. It was only replaced by Ankara in 1923, when Turkey became a republic. Third, Istanbul is strategically located straddling the Bosporus Strait that separates Europe from Asia. Finally, and perhaps most importantly for Erdoğan, his political career took off as Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998. Apart from being a great blow to Erdoğan's ego, losing Istanbul can be seen as an omen of his decline. 

"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!"

Still, by annulling the vote and calling a re-run over dubious claims is probably going to undermine his credibility and popularity even more. This time he could lose by more than a few thousand votes and the impact will be even more painful. Unless he cheats, that is, which is not out of the question; but that may end up being just as detrimental to him. In fact, it could prove a lot worse.

Erdoğan has proved to be very resourceful. His rise to power was linked to a pro-EU stance. This was soon abandoned for nationalism when he realised that the EU could not be duped by mere promises of combating bigotry and corruption. Nevertheless, the June 23 re-run date is around the corner. There is not much he can do in such a short time to change the course of events without causing even more outrage. 

At the end of the day, his constitutional changes still allow for a President to be put on trial, as long as there is a a two-thirds majority. Will Erdoğan stop digging himself into a hole? So far, it seems rather unlikely...